12.9: Price Trends in the Photovoltaic Industry Chain

Silicon wafer

[Prices] The market price for 18X silicon wafers is RMB 1.15–1.2 per wafer; the price for 210RN silicon wafers is RMB 1.18–1.25 per wafer; and the price for 210N silicon wafers is RMB 1.48–1.55 per wafer. Assuming raw material costs do not experience significant fluctuations, silicon wafer prices are expected to remain broadly stable in the short term.

[Production] Silicon Wafer Companies in December Significant production cuts , the reduction in production is approximately 16%， Production hits another year-to-date low. Moreover, many downstream links are facing similar situations. According to our research, this round of production cuts is not driven by disorderly competition, but rather... Under the dual pressures of insufficient domestic demand and soaring procurement costs, Consensus-based decision-making that businesses are compelled to adopt.

[Inventory] The actual inventories of both silicon wafer companies and battery companies are accumulating—though... The battery manufacturers’ sentiment in the current market is clearly mixed, and their willingness to replenish inventories remains weak in the short term. Therefore, reduce the turnover inventory by about 5-7 days; currently, the total silicon wafer inventory is at... Below the reasonable water level 。

Battery cell

[Prices] The FOB price for high-efficiency PERC 182 cells (with an efficiency of 23.2% or higher) ranges from USD 0.038 to USD 0.04 per watt, with an average transaction price of USD 0.039 per watt. The price for Topcon 183N cells remains stable at RMB 0.28 to RMB 0.285 per watt, with an average transaction price of RMB 0.285 per watt—equivalent to an FOB China price of USD 0.038 to USD 0.04 per watt. The price for 210RN stays steady at RMB 0.27 to RMB 0.275 per watt, with an average transaction price of RMB 0.275 per watt—corresponding to an FOB China price of USD 0.037 to USD 0.04 per watt. The price for 210N remains stable at RMB 0.28 to RMB 0.285 per watt, with an average transaction price of RMB 0.285 per watt. The price for HJT 30% silver-clad copper cells ranges from RMB 0.36 to RMB 0.40 per watt, with an average transaction price of RMB 0.38 per watt. Given that most companies are vertically integrated, they primarily engage in self-production and self-use or contract manufacturing. Market demand is showing a slight recovery as downstream operating rates rise, and both domestic and international orders are being delivered steadily.

[Production] In December, SMM’s sample data showed global wafer production reaching approximately 48.7 GW (-12.5% month-on-month), with domestic production at 47.8 GW (-12.7% month-on-month). As we enter December, if the weak demand forecast at year-end materializes, the scope of production cuts could expand further. Companies will become more rational in balancing supply. The industry is expected to gradually shift from the current “buyer’s market” toward a “weakly balanced” recovery.

[Inventory] Battery cells in sizes 183 and 210 have begun to be destocked, while inventory pressure for 210RN remains relatively high. In Over supply In the current market environment, procurement tends to... Reduce willingness to pay To this end, some manufacturers have shifted to contract manufacturing with lower costs in order to secure the limited orders available. According to the latest statistics, upstream inventory in the photovoltaic cell market has fallen by 4.73% week-on-week, yet surged by 598% year-on-year.

Photovoltaic encapsulant film

[Price]

EVA photovoltaic material: The current price of EVA photovoltaic material is between 9,250 and 9,650 yuan per ton. The transaction price for POE photovoltaic material ranges from 10,000 to 13,000 yuan per ton.

Photovoltaic encapsulant film: Currently, the mainstream 420-gram transparent EVA film sells at a price of 4.87 to 4.91 yuan per square meter; the 420-gram white EVA film is priced at 5.37 to 5.41 yuan per square meter; the 380-gram EPE film costs 4.86 to 4.94 yuan per square meter; and the 380-gram POE film is priced at 6.69 to 6.84 yuan per square meter.

[Production] In December, the production plan for EVA photovoltaic materials increased by 4.09% month-on-month, while the production plan for photovoltaic encapsulant films decreased by 12.96% month-on-month.

【Inventory】Currently The overall inventory level at the petrochemical plant is relatively low. However, as newly added production capacity is gradually brought online and demand remains sluggish, Inventory at the downstream petrochemical plant is expected to rise.